Opinion

In the space of just fourteen months, British politics has been jolted by an insurgency few in Westminster foresaw. In July 2024, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, secured 14.3% of the national vote and just five MPs at the general election — a breakthrough, but hardly a revolution. Labour swept to power with a landslide in seats despite winning only 34% of the vote, while the Conservatives collapsed to their worst result in nearly two centuries with 24%. The story then seemed one of a historic Tory implosion, Labour dominance, and a populist irritant parked on the sidelines.

But by autumn 2025, that picture has been dramatically overturned. Reform UK is now polling at unprecedented levels for a third party: 30–35% nationally according to 

, overtaking both Labour and the Conservatives. In some polls, Reform leads Labour by double digits, opening up a 15-point margin. In May, Sarah Pochin of Reform UK scored a symbolic by-election victory in Runcorn & Helsby, 

overturning a 14,000 Labour majority to win by just six votes

. In the local elections the same month, Reform contested almost every seat in England, won 677 councillors and seized control of 10 county and unitary councils, 

more than both Labour and the Conservatives combined

For the first time in modern history, Britain’s two-party duopoly faces a genuine populist challenger with national momentum, grassroots infrastructure, and determination to smash through the gates of government.

The surge has left Labour reeling. Sir Keir Starmer’s personal ratings are dire: only 24% of Britons view him positively, while 68% view him negatively — a net score of –44, according to 

. More than half of Labour members want a new leader before the next election. Inside the party, tensions simmer between pragmatists urging delivery and critics like Andy Burnham warning that Labour is being boxed in by Farage’s dominance of the national conversation.

This is not a mid-term wobble Labour can shrug off. Reform’s surge is a blunt warning: millions now believe Labour has failed to deliver the change it promised. Unless Starmer moves decisively, Farage could harden protest energy into permanent realignment — leaving Labour stranded as the establishment’s caretaker while Reform defines Britain’s future.

To understand Reform’s rise, one must start with the wreckage of the Conservative Party. In 2024, the Tories crashed to just 24% of the vote. By mid-2025, polls routinely placed them below 20%, and a 

 projected they would win barely 46 seats if an election were held. Approximately a quarter to a third of 2024 Conservative voters have since defected to Reform, according to multiple studies. These are disproportionately older, pro-Brexit voters who cite immigration, law and order, and national identity as their top concerns.

In short, Reform has become the new home for Britain’s right, with Farage presenting himself as the custodian of betrayed Thatcherites and disillusioned Brexiteers. The Conservative leadership under Kemi Badenoch has been reduced to floating local pacts with Reform — an idea Farage contemptuously rejects. His ambition is not alliance but replacement.

But Reform’s growth cannot be explained by Tory collapse alone. 

 finds that 15–18% of Labour’s 2024 voters have also drifted away, particularly those alienated by cuts to the winter fuel allowance, controversial tax changes, and a sense of drift. Many of these defections occurred in low-turnout contests like the 2025 locals, amplifying Reform’s apparent dominance. Anger at cost-of-living pressures and a sense that Labour governs with technocratic detachment have left some voters vulnerable to Farage’s anti-establishment message.

Thus, Reform’s base is an uneasy coalition: angry ex-Tories, disillusioned Labour voters, and first-time protest voters united more by grievance than by a coherent policy platform. It is precisely this volatility that makes the surge both impressive and fragile.

A turning point came in Runcorn & Helsby, a Labour stronghold in Cheshire. At the 2024 general election, Labour held the seat with a majority of over 14,000. But in May 2025, Reform candidate Sarah Pochin squeaked to victory by just six votes, both parties tied on 38.7%. The 

For Farage, it was a vindication. Reform had not just siphoned Tory votes but beaten Labour head-to-head – albeit very, 

narrowly – in one of its heartlands. For Starmer, it was a sign of the anger festering among traditional supporters.

Days later, Reform swept the local elections. Winning control of councils from Lincolnshire to Lancashire, it proved that its appeal was not confined to one by-election quirk but had translated into grassroots power. Former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns became Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire on a Reform ticket, while ex-boxer Luke Campbell took Hull & East Yorkshire. Across England, Reform candidates topped the ballot in areas long thought unwinnable.

Political scientist John Curtice declared Britain was 

. That assessment now underpins the sense of crisis inside Labour: Farage is not a passing irritant but a populist challenger capable of rewriting the electoral map.

 also be its high-water mark. Multiple indicators suggest its support is wide but shallow.

First, much of it is a protest vote. Survation’s analysis concludes that Reform’s lead “reflects a deepening dissatisfaction” with the main parties rather than lasting loyalty to Farage. 

 finds that two-thirds of Tory-to-Reform defectors could imagine returning if the Conservatives addressed their concerns. The same applies to disaffected Labour voters, many of whom stayed home in the locals rather than actively switch.

Second, Reform is increasingly entangled with the far right. On 13 September 2025, a “Unite the Kingdom” rally organised by "Tommy Robinson", whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, drew up between 110,000 and 150,000 people in London, ending in violence with 24 arrests and 26 police officers injured. Elon Musk even beamed in a speech warning “violence is coming” and calling for regime change. Former Reform deputy leader Ben Habib, now heading the breakaway Advance UK, also appeared on stage.

Farage publicly called the violence “horrible” but defended most participants as “ordinary, decent people”. His dance with extremism underscores a dangerous balancing act: absorbing populist energy without being branded reckless. Already, figures like Howard Cox have quit Reform over the party’s “dictatorship” and its unwillingness to confront Robinson. Advance UK lurks as both competitor and reputational threat.

Third, the first-past-the-post system remains a brutal obstacle. In 2024, Reform turned 14% of votes into just five seats. Even with 30–35%, unless its support is geographically concentrated, many votes could be wasted. Some voters may tactically revert to Labour or Conservatives to avoid “splitting the vote”. Thus, Reform’s polling strength might overstate its electoral impact — unless Farage can sustain momentum into a general election.

In short, Reform’s rise is real, but its coalition is brittle. That brittleness is precisely Labour’s opportunity.

Labour should, on paper, be impregnable. It commands the machinery of government, a broad coalition of voters, and the ability to deliver tangible improvements. Yet its leader is deeply unpopular. 

 data from August 2025 shows Starmer’s ratings at historic lows. A 

 found that 53% of Labour members want him gone before the next election.

Inside the party, despair is palpable. Critics warn that Labour is being reactive, always chasing Farage’s framing rather than setting its own. The risk is that Starmer becomes defined not as the architect of change but as the embodiment of drift. In a political era defined by anger, drift is deadly.

The Runcorn shock epitomised this weakness: Labour voters, uninspired by Starmer’s message, either stayed home or defected.

Yet Labour is not doomed. The analysis across all three reports is clear: Reform’s surge is real but not irreversible. Labour retains structural advantages and a clear route back if it acts decisively.

First, visible delivery. Competence is not an abstract slogan; it must be felt. Starmer must ensure that NHS waiting times shorten, wages rise, and communities feel safer. If voters experience tangible improvement, the attraction of protest politics diminishes.

Second, credible migration policy. Farage thrives on portraying Labour as weak. But Starmer has begun to fight back. At the 2025 Labour conference, 

he branded Farage’s plan to revoke indefinite leave to remain as “racist”

defended Labour’s digital ID scheme to curb illegal working

. He must now press this advantage, showing that Labour can be both fair and firm without succumbing to extremism.

Third, expose Reform’s fragility. Labour should relentlessly highlight Farage’s lack of serious governance plans, his flirtation with extremists, and the volatility of his coalition. Every Advance UK rally, every Tommy Robinson protest, is an opportunity to argue that Farage cannot be trusted with power.

Finally, reclaim moral leadership. Labour must not only manage decline but embody change. This is a moment for Labour to wake up, not give up.

The choice is stark. If Labour acts now, delivering competence and fairness, Reform’s revolt could collapse as quickly as it rose. But if Starmer hesitates, the populist tide could harden into a permanent realignment, with Farage establishing himself not just as a disruptor but as a contender for Downing Street.

Britain has seen insurgencies before — UKIP, the SDP and Reform 1.0: the Brexit Party. Most burned bright and faded. But Reform 2.0 is different: better organised, better funded, and fuelled by a collapse of the right unmatched in modern history. But it is still fragile.

For Labour, the window is closing. The next twelve months will decide whether Britain’s future belongs to pragmatic change or to Farage’s populist revolt. If Starmer cannot rise to the challenge, the risk is not merely losing power, but ceding the soul of the country to a politics of grievance, division, and dangerous simplicity.

The Protest Party: Can Labour Burst Farage’s Bubble?

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